A report this afternoon reveal that the Knicks won’t match the Rockets’ offer sheet to Jeremy Lin, and he will become a Rocket. Even if this doesn’t happen, you have to give a ton of credit to Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey for trying, and I have never been one of those “In Morey We Trust” defenders.
About 7 months ago when the Rockets waived Lin right around Christmas because of a logjam at point guard (given the bad decision to keep Jonny Flynn instead), it turned out that move was probably one of the worst personnel decisions in recent history.
Lin would go on to show that he’s pretty good. The boxscores, the in-depth stats, and the wins that followed showed he’s not a fluke.
Many of Morey’s defenders at the time said that no one knew how good Lin was going to be (nor the Golden State Warriors or Dallas Mavericks, who also let him go), so the decision to cut him was understandable.
But on February 9th, Daryl Morey tweeted:
“We should have kept [Jeremy Lin]. Did not know he was this good. Anyone who says they knew misleading U.”
It was refreshing that Morey admitted he made a mistake, but it was the second part of the tweet suggesting those people who thought Lin was worth keeping around would be “misleading U” was a little disturbing. It was like he was trying to make an excuse for his mistake. Interestingly, Morey has removed that tweet from his Twitter account, perhaps because he later realized that it was wrong for him to make excuses.
Other analysts, like former NBA champion Kenny Smith, questioned if the Rockets and Morey really knew how to evaluate personnel, as evidenced in the following statement .
To be a great coach or a great general manager, I don’t think you have to be an x’s and o’s person (a great one). I don’t think you have to have a great relationship with your talent. I think that you have to be able to EVALUATE talent. That’s numero uno. If this guy fell off of everyone’s radar, and he’s been in your practice facility there working, and he can do this in an NBA game, you just don’t have a great idea on how to evaluate talent! And so that means you’re drawing up plays for the wrong guys. That means you’re having conversations with the wrong guys!
So to me, the number one thing for a coach is to recognize who your talent is on your team….
(After the emergence of Lin), there are guys sitting on NBA benches saying, “See, I’m telling you. They don’t know how to evaluate talent up here!
For what it’s worth, even Kobe Bryant said that all the GMs who passed on Lin should be fired.
Granted, the Rockets under Morey’s leadership have made some good personnel decisions, but they have also made many questionable ones. But you have to give credit to Morey — for better or worse — for trying to knock the Rockets out of terminal mediocrity by taking a risk getting rid of a lot of their players to position themselves for Dwight Howard, and now to be on the cusp of getting Lin.
Ironically, the Rockets’ being in position to get Lin back wouldn’t be happening if they hadn’t underbid their offer to re-sign Goran Dragic, who signed with Phoenix because the Rockets were not willing to guarantee a 4th year like Phoenix had.
But you have to give kudos to Morey for having a Plan B in place to quickly try to sign Lin to an offer sheet after Dragic declined their offer. No other team was as quick to the punch, probably because they were afraid that the Knicks would match an offer “up to a billion dollars,” as the Knicks had signaled, and it would be a wasted effort.
And you have to give credit to Morey for understanding the CBA rules early enough to construct a poison pill that would make it extremely expensive for the Knicks to counter because of luxury tax considerations. Then he pulled another brilliant move by upping the ante in the 3rd year of the contract to about $14.8 million after the Knicks went out and signed some other players, putting them more in a financial bind to match the offer to Lin.
Now with the signing of Lin a potential reality, I bet there are many other GMs (Golden State, Dallas, etc.) who had wished they had tried to sign Lin to an offer sheet as quickly as the Rockets did.
Also, Morey was ballsy enough to create — I would think — a huge stir among the NBA GM ranks to make it a very uncomfortable situation for the Knicks. I imagine in the small fraternity of NBA GMs, it’s much easier to not ruffle too many feathers out of fear of future deals becoming be more difficult to pull off by increasing the size of the poison pill right before signing Lin to the offer sheet. Conventional wisdom seems to reward blending in, stay friendly with everyone, be fairly conservative, build through the draft, make small incremental trades and free agency signings, and hope for the best.
But as we have seen the past few years with the Rockets, that doesn’t get you very far. So Morey has evolved to become more aggressive, just like when everyone thought Pat Riley in Miami was crazy a couple of years ago to clear all that cap space with hopes of bringing LeBron James and Chris Bosh to South Beach to join Dwyane Wade. It was a big risk, but it obviously worked out. Perhaps Morey has learned from what Miami did, and is changing his strategy to be just as aggressive.
In Morey’s case, I don’t recall a potential transaction in recent NBA (or professional sports) history where a GM has targeted another team’s restricted free agent using tactics that are so creative and unusual (like making a poison pill even harder to swallow by increasing the 3rd year another $5 million). It may have happened before, but one doesn’t come to mind.
It would have been so easy for Morey and Co. to put on a skeptical front about Lin as his career advanced as a Knick. Everyone had already seemed to give Morey a pass for having cut Lin. But you have to give Morey credit for doing his homework, looking at Lin objectively through analyzing his stats and video as a Knick, and going after him again.
Rarely do you see that kind of humility from a GM to not only admit past mistakes, but to try to correct it when a small opportunity arose to re-acquire Lin. Even head coach Kevin McHale said recently that if they knew last December that Lin was as good as he played in New York, they would have cut half their team to keep him.
If the Knicks don’t match the Rockets’ offer sheet later tonight and Lin becomes a Rocket, and somehow the Rockets are able to trade for Dwight Howard this off-season, the Rockets will become immediate contenders in the West. Furthermore, Howard will probably be more inclined to sign an extension with the Rockets since he would have a very good point guard breaking down defenses and dishing him the ball.
It also doesn’t hurt that Lin would be highly followed among hundreds of millions of Chinese. Just look at all the marketing opportunities that came to Yao Ming’s teammates (Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, etc) just by being associated with Yao. That could be enough to offset the advantages of Howard wanting to go to the Lakers or the Nets.
If none of this works out, it will be disappointing, but in my book Morey will have redeemed himself by working his butt off to try to fix past mistakes when it would have been much easier to play it safe and go in a different direction. Many GMs would have opted for the easier route to move on.