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Rockets break down in heartbreaker to Bulls. Here’s the breakdown of what went wrong

December 5th, 2010
by John

After big wins against the Lakers and Memphis this week, could the Rockets on Saturday make us believe they had finally turned the corner on their season and win a game in Chicago against a better team than the Grizzlies on the road in the second game of a back-to-back?

After a valiant comeback effort in the fourth quarter where they showed no signs of being mentally soft, the Rockets built a 5-point lead with 36.5 seconds remaining. Even the most skeptical Rocket fans had to be thinking, “There’s no way they can lose this game with this kind of lead.”

But this is the Rockets we’re talking about here.

They came within tenths of a second of shaking off their reputation this season for mental weakness in the clutch, but a defensive breakdown that let Derrick Rose hit a wide-open 3-pointer with 0 seconds on the game clock tied the game and sent it to OT, and Houston went on to blow another game they should have won.

December 4th, 2010 - Derrick Rose celebrates after hitting a 3-pointer that tied the game against the Rockets, sending the game into overtime
Derrick Rose celebrates after hitting a 3-pointer that tied the game against the Rockets, sending the game into overtime. Click here for more photos from the game.

So now we’re back to the problems the Rockets have encountered all season long – play well enough to take leads, but not being able to close the deal.

Below I have broken down the big plays from about the halfway mark in the 4th quarter all the way through overtime so you can see just how they imploded down the stretch. Here are a few of the high-level takeaways that are referenced in those details:

– The Rockets pick-and-roll defense was terrible on Rose. Not just on that buzzer beater that forced the game into overtime, but blowing two other pick-and-rolls involving Rose to let him score.

Brad Miller played a great game in many ways, hitting four 3-pointers and scoring 20 points, but he also was a problem, missing a big free throw (even though he’s an 88% FT shooter this season!) that could have iced the game (same goes for Kyle Lowry missing a FT late), being involved in those pick-and-roll breakdowns, and jacking up a terrible 3-pointer at the buzzer that had no chance when he had plenty of time to pass to an open man. It’s too bad he couldn’t do to the Bulls what he had done to the Rockets last season when he played for Chicago: be the nemesis that would beat them.

– I can understand why Luis Scola hasn’t been playing in late-game situations lately with Rick Adelman opting to play Jordan Hill instead. You’ll see in my breakdown why Scola is known for being a liability on the boards and defensively. I’m not sure why Adelman played Scola, and not Hill, late in this game, especially since Adelman said that Hill is the best player who can go get rebounds. And also since Brad Miller was on the court most of the 4th quarter and overtime, and Adelman recently stated he likes playing Miller and Hill together.

Before you read the details below, here are a few more observations from the game:

Jermaine Taylor got some early action in the second quarter (8 minutes) and had some good moves, scoring on 2-of-5 shots for 4 points. But Adelman didn’t play him the rest of the game, but continued to give Chase Budinger more playing time, and he responded with an 0-for-6 game and 1 point. Ouch.

I like Budinger, but he’s having a terrible year (35% shooting, 23% on 3-pointers), and I think it’s way past time to give Taylor more playing time. Maybe that will change up Budinger’s routine or something to knock him out of his funk because he is clearly hurting the team.

Kevin Martin didn’t play at all during the time I started and ended the breakdown (midway through the 4th quarter and through overtime). I understand he was sick, although he did score 14 points in 28 minutes on 5-of-10 shooting – sounds like he was okay to me. They could have really used his free throw shooting instead of Miller’s when the Bulls intentionally fouled him that could have won the game if he had hit both free throws.

Okay, here are the plays that show how the Rockets overcame their deficit, took the lead, then let it slip away, along with the game:

6:39 – Courtney Lee hits a 3-pointer. The Rockets pull within two points. It’s 89-87, Bulls.

6:04 – Hill scores on a jump hook over Boozer. Beautiful move and shot. 92-87 Bulls.

5:29 – Budinger misses a 3-pointer and Joakim Noah grabs the rebound, but Lowry steals the ball from Noah! Seven seconds later, Miller nails a three! 94-92 Bulls.

4:12 – Lee hits another 3-pointer, this time from the corner! 96-95 Bulls

3:39 – Brad Miller drops a nice bounce pass to Lee along the baseline on a backdoor play, Lee lays it in, and he’s fouled! That’s the Adelman offense we’ve always loved! Lee hits the free throw. 98-97, the Rockets take the lead!

3:20 – Lee steals the ball from Rose, who had it over his head after picking up the dribble!

3:06 – Brad Miller hits a three! 101-97 Rockets!

2:52 – Kyle Korver hits a wide-open 3-pointer off a pick-and-roll. Defensive breakdown. 101-100 Bulls.

2:35 – Lowry drives to the basket, misses a layup that’s contested, but Carlos Boozer is called for a loose ball foul against Scola, which is questionable. Scola makes both free throws. 103-100 Rockets.

2:22 – Scola loses Boozer by looking toward the baseline where Rose has dribbled, Roses pass the ball to Boozer, who gets a wide-open look at the elbow for a field goal. 103-102 Houston.

1:59 – Miller drives to the baseline and throws up a little jump hook, but misses. However, Rose is called for a loose ball foul against Lowry. Lowry makes both free throws. 105-102 Rockets.

1:29 – The Rockets play good defense to hold Chicago scoreless on two shot attempts.

1:04 – 24-second shot clock violation on Houston. Miller put up a tough shot that was blocked, but it came after the shot clock went off anyway.

0:56 – Rose drives through the lane, gets to the hole, BUT MISSES A TOUGH LAYUP ATTEMPT! THE ROCKETS COME DOWN WITH THE REBOUND. THE ROCKETS STILL LEAD THE GAME 105-102 WITH LESS THAN A MINUTE LEFT!

0:36.5 – LOWRY DRIVES TO THE BASKET AND MAKES A TOUGH REVERSE LAYUP! THE ROCKETS LEAD 107-102 WITH 36.5 SECONDS REMAINING. THERE’S NO WAY THEY CAN LOSE THIS GAME NOW, RIGHT?

0:24 – Scola allows himself to be easily pushed out from underneath the basket without any resistance by Boozer, and Boozer taps in a missed shot by Noah. 107-104 Rockets.

0:23.6 – Lowry is intentionally fouled by Rose. He misses the first free throw, but makes the second. 108-104 Rockets.

0:14.7 – Scola tried to block a Rose shot in the lane, but that low-percentage block attempt took himself out of the play, which allows Boozer to get inside position and grab the offensive rebound to lay it in.

0:10.7 – Miller missed one of two free throws. 109-106 Rockets.

0:00 – Rose gives the ball to Noah, then cuts back behind Noah’s screen to shake Courtney Lee. Rose rises up and nails a 3-pointer to tie the game. Lee should have fouled Noah by running into him as he was setting the screen. Tie ballgame.

Overtime:

3:33 – Lowry jumps into the air on a Luol Deng pump fake, opening up a lane to the basket that Deng drive through for a layup. 111-109 Bulls.

3:17 – Scola misses a contested layup in the lane.

3:07 – Miller blocks a Rose shot attempt near the rim. Good defense!

2:52 – Miller makes a 3-pointer! 112-111 Rockets.

2:28 – Noah gets a wide open pass in the lane for a layup, and is fouled by Scola on a bad, ticky-tack call by the ref on Scola! Miller came over to help on Rose, who broke down Lee to get into the lane. Scola didn’t help out in putting a body on Noah to keep him from getting wide open. Overall team defense breakdown. Noah misses the free throw. 113-112 Bulls.

2:08 – Scola scores on a nice jump hook in the lane. 114-113 Rockets.

1:49 – Rose gets wide open on a pick-and-roll very close to the same area where he hit his 3-pointer to tie the game. Lee got caught behind the screen, AND ROSE DRAINS A 3-POINTER AGAIN! 116-114 Bulls.

1:32 – Scola hits a jumper at the elbow. Tie game: 116-116.

1:17 – Courtney Lee gets caught behind another pick-and-roll with Noah and Rose, leaving a lane wide open for Rose to drive the lane and score. Miller stayed way out high, which didn’t help any in clogging the lane. The pick-and-roll defense on Rose has been terrible. 118-116 Bulls.

0:59 – Miller misses a 3-pointer

0:26 – Rose misses a jumper. Good one-on-one defense by Lee to contest the shot.

0:08 – Miller barely misses a wide open 3-pointer that could have given the Rockets the lead.

0:04.5 – Ronnie Brewer is fouled on a loose ball to stop the clock. Brewer makes only 1-of-2 free throws. 119-116 Bulls. The Rockets have a chance to tie it.

0:02 – Miller received the inbounds pass and put up a very low-percentage shot with 2 seconds remaining on the clock, which is still plenty of time to pass the ball to an open man. The shot falls way short. Game over. Meanwhile, Lowry was wide open behind the 3-point line Miller should have tried to pass the ball to. Rockets lose 119-116.

Random thought:

I watched the WGN broadcast of the game, and I’ve never seen a broadcast crew (that includes former Bull Stacey King) whine so much about a foul that didn’t happen. When Derrick Rose drove to the basket and missed it with 56 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter, they slowed down the replay and said Rose was fouled 3 different times on that one drive AND NONE OF IT WAS TRUE! THEY WERE MAKING UP FOULS THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN, and then continued to whine about it for a couple of minutes during a timeout. Give me a break!

Houston follows up Laker win with an even better game statistically

December 4th, 2010
by John

The Rockets did something Friday night they hadn’t done all season long: win a game after winning an even bigger game. In other words: not have a letdown.

Two days after beating the Lakers, the Rockets went to Memphis for another test of their mettle. That’s because on 3 different occasions this season they had let us down, not showing up when we thought they had turned the corner. Remember these games?

– Nov. 7th – Houston blows out Minnesota for their first win of the season, then loses to a bad Washington Wizard team
– Nov. 24th – A big win against Golden State to stop a 4-game losing streak, followed by a bad loss in Charlotte
– Nov. 28th – A great victory against Oklahoma City, then blown out by Dallas

The Rockets finally delivered with a win after a big win by beating Memphis 127-111, scoring more points against Memphis than any other team had done this season. And they did it in ways that we had seen with other great Houston teams: amazing 3-point shooting (16-of-23 for 70% shooting) and shooting overall (60% for the game). We know these are fluky stats that we won’t see again anytime soon and will just come out of the blue, especially since coach Rick Adelman didn’t even expect it based on this post-game quote:

“You’re always going to be surprised when you have an offense run like that, especially when we couldn’t make a shot in shootaround. So, maybe we saved it for the right time.”

What they DID get that’s more sustainable over the long-term were performances from players we have expected great things from this season.

Kyle Lowry scored 28 points against his former team, hitting 11-of-15 from the field and 4-of-5 from 3-point land for 28 points. Hitting 4-of-5 is incredible considering Lowry had only made 8 of 31 shots (26%) from behind the arc for the season. He balanced out that long-range shooting by scoring 12 of his points in the paint. Lowry also had 12 assists, which tied his career high.

December 3rd, 2010 - Kyle Lowry scores two of his career-high 28 points against the Memphis Grizzlies
Kyle Lowry scores two of his career-high 28 points against the Grizzlies.  Click here for more photos from the game.

Lowry’s backcourt mate Kevin Martin delivered with numbers we expected from him when he was acquired: 28 points on 11-of-15 shots, and 5-of-6 on three-pointers. Getting 56 points from your backcourt is reminiscent of what the great teams in the NBA can get.

Brad Miller proved how great of an acquisition we thought he would be with 23 points on 7-of-7 shots, including 3-of-3 from long range. There’s not much more you can ask from your backup center in just 24 minutes of play. Luis Scola was a solid 6-of-11 for 15 points. Courtney Lee had one of his best games of a Rocket, hitting 7-of-9 shots for 16 points. Even former Grizzly Shane Battier had another great game shooting following up his awesome game against the Lakers with 12 points on 4-of-8 shots, making 2-of-3 three-pointers.

The only player left out of the party was Chase Budinger, who was just 1-for-5 from the field for 3 points. But in the long run, these things tend to even out, and there will come a day where Chase will bail out his teammates with hot shooting like Lowry and the other players did Friday night.

Having passed the test of winning a game after a big victory over a team like the Lakers, Houston fans are now looking to see if the Rockets can do it again, this time against Chicago on a back-to-back facing one of their toughest match-ups in the league: Derek Rose, who lit them up for 33 points last time. Carlos Boozer is also back in the line-up, but the Bulls have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Fortunately, Kevin Martin has averaged 26 points in his last 3 games in Chicago.

Yao works out on the court against Jordan Hill

December 2nd, 2010
by John

Raymond has posted some photos in the forum of a workout that Yao Ming had with Jordan Hill today at Toyota Center, the first time Yao has returned to the court for some real action since hurting his ankle last month. From reports of the workout, it sounds like Yao’s ankle is doing very well considering the intensity of the workout.

Yao will stay in Houston while the Rockets are on their 2-game road trip, with Yao’s goal to get back on the court next Tuesday night at Toyota Center against Detroit.

December 2nd, 2010 - Yao Ming and Jordan Hill go one-on-one in practice at Toyota Center
Yao works out against Jordan Thursday at Toyota Center as Rick Adelman and other Rockets’ conditioning staff look on. Click here for more photos from Yao’s workout.

Shane shocks Lakers in Rockets role-reversal

December 2nd, 2010
by John

What a Wednesday night! The Rockets did so many things right that they’ve done wrong this season, like making plays in crunch time. And doing it against the world champion LA Lakers. Although the Lakers have lost 4 in a row, the first time that’s happened since April 2007, it still counts as Houston’s finest win of the season. And it comes only two days after getting torn up in Dallas, putting them in one of their deepest valleys in this tumultuous season. The question now is if they can keep it up, especially after disappointing their fans several times this season after encouraging victories.

If they don’t, at least we can enjoy the memory of a full crowd at Toyota Center sticking around — and standing and cheering — until the very end of a game. It reminded me of the playoff game atmosphere from a couple of seasons ago when they won 3 games at home in front of electrified home crowds to take the Lakers to 7 games. Fans were high-fiving each other and jumping up-and-down. That’s what we live for, and we haven’t had much of it this season.

Houston fans also received good news before the game that Yao, who participated in a shootaround with the team before Wednesday’s game, may be able to get back to action next Tuesday night against Detroit. And Aaron Brooks got in some court action, too, and may return 3 days after Yao against Milwaukee. Just the THOUGHT of having those guys on the practice court with target return dates had to give their beleaguered team a lift before facing the Lakers.

But the man of the hour was Shane Battier, who went on a tear to score 11 points in a row in the final 3 minutes of the game to overcome a 97-94 lead the Lakers had built. You know a performance like that from Shane won’t happen again anytime soon, but the Rockets will take a player who steps up in crunch time any way they can get it.

December 1st, 2010 - Shane Battier defends against Kobe Bryant
Shane Battier defends against Kobe Bryant, but in the end, it was Shane’s offense in the last 3 minutes that gave Kobe and the Lakers trouble. Click here for more photos from the game.

And Shane did most of his damage after halftime, not making a bucket the entire first half. The 3-pointers he hit were huge, of course, bringing down the house and befuddling the Lakers. But the most amazing shot for Shane during his run came after Kobe fell down trying to defend him, and in Kobe-like style, Battier took advantage of his mistake, dribbled once, and put up a tough shot with his body still moving somewhat, and drained it! He basically created his own shot without having any time to think about it — that’s not how Battier does it! You know when that shot went in, the Rockets were destined to win, and they did so by going on a 22-6 run to end the game.

My rule-of-thumb from a few seasons ago continues to prove me right: if Battier scores, the Rockets win. There’s probably no other stat from any player on the roster that’s correlated more to the Rockets winning games than that one.

From a team perspective, it’s no surprise that when the Rockets hit more 3-pointers than their opponent, they win. That was the case again Wednesday night, hitting 10-of-22 (46%) compared to 5-of-16 for LA.

I’ve been thinking this season that people have overreacted and overestimated how good the Lakers are. Sure, they’re good, but people forget that Boston almost took them last year in the Finals with no Kendrick Perkins in Game 7, Kobe had a terrible game in that game, they were saved by Ron Artest (who had 4 points against Houston Wednesday night) having the game of his life in that Game 7, and the refs started making calls completely different in the 4th quarter from what they had called in the previous three. If Perkins had played, Artest hadn’t shown up, or the refs had stayed consistent, people might be thinking the Lakers are good, but not that good. All of a sudden with that win, they have become larger than life, and everyone now thinks they are better than what they really are. But hey, at least it makes for good theater, and if a victory over the “back-to-back” champions helps create more confidence for Houston, I’m all for it.

One key point of the game that gave Houston hope was when they went on a 13-2 run at the end of the first half to cut the lead to one point before Kobe hit a jumper at the buzzer to give LA a 56-53 halftime lead. Without that, I think the Rockets would have gone into halftime with much less confidence. FoxSports Houston reported at halftime they could hear a lot of energy and yelling (the good kind) coming out of Rockets’ locker room, emboldened by what they had done to close out the half. Perhaps that finish to close-out the first half propelled them to excel in the second half.

Jordan Hill did a much better job in the second half on Pau Gasol, who only scored 8 points in the game on 2-of-8 shooting. Hill outscored him with 10 points. By cultivating Hill through the first 17 games of the season, perhaps the Rockets have found their athletic big who can go up against the best of them. No better way to make Houston fans forget about not signing Erick Dampier. I love how Hill, a throw-in to the Tracy McGrady/Kevin Martin deal, is surprising people with his progress. Just a few weeks ago people were thinking the kid was a bust. You have to give Rick Adelman credit for giving him playing time, and Daryl Morey and his staff credit for acquiring him as an afterthought to the McGrady deal last year.

And you have to give credit to the much maligned Houston bench, who outscored LA’s bench 40-30.

Random thoughts:

– So Wednesday night a 5-12 Texas team (Houston) beats a 13-5 LA team. Strangely on the same night, a 4-14 LA team (Clippers) beat a very good 15-2 Texas team (San Antonio). It was a night for the underdogs. Anything can happen any given night in the NBA.

– When I saw Kobe warming up with the red-and-white shooting shirt for Wednesday’s World AIDS day, it made me think what he would have looked like as a Rocket. It also made me think back to a few years ago when the Rockets had a chance to trade McGrady for Kobe when he was disenchanted with LA and was thinking of leaving. Just image how much of Houston and LA’s fate might have changed over the past few years if that trade had occurred!

Forget the Dallas loss; here’s some uplifting Yao video

November 30th, 2010
by John

As you may have noticed, I’m not too enthused to blog about the Rockets’ loss to the Mavericks last night. Same story, different verse: the Mavericks went on a run the Rockets couldn’t stop, but unlike most other games, it was downhill from there, getting blown out to go 5-12 for the season.

So rather than write more about the game like I usually do, I thought I’d post some video from a piece that FSN Houston aired earlier this month about the work Yao did over the past year to come back from his reconstructive foot surgery. I’ve got to think he’ll be doing some of the same work in rehabbing after the bone bruise in his ankle heals. I’ll post part 2 in the next day or so:

Durant misses a jumper to save Rockets from losing another game due to a blown lead

November 29th, 2010
by John

The Rockets surprised a lot of their fans Sunday night, holding on by a fingernail to beat Oklahoma City, one of the most explosive teams in the NBA with an 11-5 record and 6-1 road record.

Kevin Durant missed a fallaway jumper at the buzzer that he normally makes in his sleep. Everyone in the building, including the Rockets, thought it was going to go in. Shane Battier did about as good of a job you can do defensively, getting a hand in Durant’s eyesight. But with Durant’s length and skill, it probably didn’t make a big difference. He just missed it by coming up an inch short, the ball bouncing off the front of the rim for the Rockets 99-98 victory.

November 28th, 2010 - Yao helps cheer his team on to victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder
Yao Ming helps cheer his team to a victory Sunday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Click here for more photos from the game.

This was after Houston blew another lead — 9 points with 4 1/2 minutes remaining, and blowing a couple of double-digit leads earlier in the game that Oklahoma City chewed up like a tornado in a mobile home park.

All of this drama could have been avoided, though, if the Rockets’ offense didn’t turn into the Houston offenses of the past we had all grown to hate: have one guy (Kyle Lowry) dribble the shot clock down to about 7 seconds, then have him try to figure something out under duress, or jacking up a low-percentage shot.

Similarly, with 1:06 remaining, Battier had the ball in the corner with the shot clock winding down, and luckily made a difficult runner along the baseline to make it 99-93. Even Battier said after the game, “I think it was the first floater that I hit all year.” THAT is what this offense has come down to in crunch time?

After OKC’s Jeff Green hit a 3-pointer to make it 99-96 with 1 minute remaining, the best play the Rockets could come up with was for lightning to strike in the same place again: another floater from Battier that missed.

Russell Westbrook hit a jumper with 29 seconds remaining to make it 99-98. That’s when many Rocket fans just about blew a gasket as they watched Lowry just stand in one spot and dribble the ball until about 7 seconds remained on the clock, then put up a tough fallaway jumper in the lane that missed.

It amazes me that an offense and a system that depends so much on ball movement and finding an open man reverts to plays from the Charles Barkley or Steve Francis era that relies on just one guy to make something happen. And they’re doing it with Kyle Lowry, who is only shooting 36.8% from the field!

We all know the Rockets don’t have a go-to guy with Yao and Aaron Brooks out, so why depend on a play where you’re going to have a contested shot by a player who doesn’t shoot that well. The Rockets are one of the league leaders in assists (5th overall), but when they badly need a bucket, they try to be something they aren’t — running isolations and trying to score off the dribble.

On the other hand, the Thunder have so many weapons (Durant, Russell Westbrook, Green, Serge Ibaka) that strike fear in your heart, it makes you think there is no way you can win even before you step out on the court. Especially after OKC had won their last 5 games, are 8-0 in games decided by 7 points or less, and 3-0 in games decided by one point. So you have to give the Rockets credit for what they did Sunday night, especially holding Durant to 10 points below his average of 28 ppg.

I don’t think the Rockets are a bad team. They have had a chance to win in almost all of their games. They just haven’t had enough to prevent big scoring runs by their opponents, or to make plays down the stretch.

Statistically, the main advantage for the Rockets against the Thunder was rebounding (44-36), assists (26-19), and 3-point shooting (10-of-17 compared to OKC’s 5-of-12). Battier led the way from behind the arc by hitting 4-of-6 treys. I have said it for a couple of seasons now and it still rings true: when Battier scores, the Rockets win most of the time.

One of the silver linings of the Rockets’ struggles this season with Yao Ming out is that Rick Adelman has made a commitment to see what his young guys can do to step up, and so far it’s working well with Jordan Hill, who had another solid game with 12 points and 5-of-10 shooting. He also had 7 boards, bringing energy and hustle to the front line that Adelman said after the game is the only guy who aggressively goes after the ball and gets it.

November 28th, 2010 - Jordan Hill throws one down against the Oklahoma City Thunder
Jordan Hill continues to improve and has become an important part of the Rockets’ rotation lately.

It has been interesting to see Luis Scola get relegated to the bench in the 4th quarter the past two games. Hill played 9 minutes in the fourth, and it probably would have been more if he hadn’t sprained his ankle landing wrong after goaltending a shot.

Scola has been struggling lately, making only 5-of-14 shots Sunday night, and only averaging 12 ppg and making 9-of-25 shots in his last two games, and only hitting 14-of-28 (50%) of his free throws the past 5 games. But we all know Scola will bounce back. He’s just too good. Meanwhile, Hill continues to thrive, whereas his former Arizona teammate Chase Budinger continues to struggle, hitting only 1-of-4 shots (a 3-pointer) in 12 minutes. Earlier this year, everyone was thinking it would be the opposite: Budinger becoming the star and Hill trying to find playing time. If Budinger continues to struggle, we might even see Jermaine Taylor get some playing time. Imagine that!

The Rockets play the Mavericks in Dallas Monday night on a back-to-back. The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league (12-4), and Houston is only 2-7 on the road this season. Without a friendly home crowd to help them get over the hump, I will be surprised if the Rockets make a game of it given how much energy they had to expend defending the Thunder and slowing down Durant.

The dreadful reality continues: without Yao and Brooks, Rockets lose in crunch time again

November 27th, 2010
by John

I hate to say it, but by the time Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks get back in a couple of weeks, the season will be lost, if it isn’t already. You can write off any chance of seeing the Rockets make the playoffs this season, especially after seeing what we saw in Charlotte Friday night where the Rockets blew another lead to lose 99-89 and drop to 4-11. I see nothing that tells me the Rockets are going to improve dramatically before Yao and Brooks return.

November 26th, 2010 - Jordan Hill throws down a dunk in Charlotte
One of the few bright spots Friday night was Jordan Hill, who scored 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting, although he would make a young player mistake down the stretch that cost them.

To win 48 games, which is about the minimum of what you might need to make the playoffs in the West, the Rockets will need to go 44-23 the rest of the way (a 66% winning rate). That’s just about impossible given the Rockets will probably play another 5-10 games before Yao and Brooks return to action. I haven’t seen a season over so soon for a team that was expected to be so good.

Note: I’m not saying the Rockets are a terrible team. They just aren’t very capable of winning games in the fourth quarter when most games are won. Not without Yao and Brooks. Injuries are a cruel reality in the NBA.

So now the season comes down to seeing how the Rockets’ young guys will progress so they can determine which guys they will trade and/or won’t sign next off-season. And to see how Yao’s foot holds up to see if they will sign him in the off-season, but probably at a much lower salary.

Since the Rockets don’t have a go-to guy, and their offense got stagnant again Friday night again when the pressure was on. The only thing they could resort to doing was jacking up 3-pointers. And they’re not very good at that, either. The Rockets shot a season-high 28 treys, hitting only 3-of-15 in the second half. Yet they kept jacking them up. That’s not basketball. That’s a last ditch effort to try to score when you have nothing else.

Below are more details on how the Rockets imploded down the stretch…again. Keep in mind that Charlotte is NOT a great close-out team. They are like Houston when it comes to close games, having only a 2-6 record in games decided by 4 points or less.

– 6:42 – Jordan Hill makes a great spin move for a dunk, and the Rockets are down only 82-78.

– 5:50 – Chase Budinger drives baseline for a reverse layup with 5:50 remaining to make it 84-80.

– 5:28 – Budinger misses a 3-pointer that could have brought the Rockets to within one.

– 5:00 – To his credit, Budinger makes a good play when he races up the court and Kyle Lowry throws him a long pass. Bud catches it, goes up for a dunk, and is fouled hard by Gerald Wallace. Bud sinks the free throws to make it 84-82.

– 4:46 – Somehow Houston’s defense lets Boris Diaw get wide open for a long jumper, which he hits to make it 86-82, Charlotte.

– 4:22 – Budinger has a chance to respond with a 3-pointer, but he misses it.

– 4:09 – Stephen Jackson takes Courtney Lee off the dribble, drives to the basket and lays it in. 88-82 Charlotte.

– 3:40 – Shane Battier misses a three-pointer, but fortunately Budinger gets the rebound. That’s when Jordan Hill lightly pushes Tyrus Thomas with his left arm trying to post-up, and Thomas flops to draw a foul call. A bad ticky-tack call by the ref , but Hill shouldn’t have even been tempted to use his arm like that, either. Stupid mistake. It would have been nice to have had a veteran big guy on the floor at that time, like Luis Scola or Brad Miller. Go figure.

– 3:23 – On the ensuing possession, somehow Diaw (6′ 8″, 235 lbs) gets a mismatch on Kevin Martin (6′ 7″, 185 lbs), and Diaw takes advantage of it by scoring easily on a baseline jump hook. 90-82 Charlotte.

– 2:56 – Battier misses another 3-pointer, then after an offensive rebound, blows a layup a few seconds later. Diaw grabs the rebound, loses control of the ball and falls backwards on the floor and lands on the end line right in front of the ref (Mike Callahan), but Callahan blows the call, lets play continue and a few seconds later Stephen Jackson nails a 3-pointer to make it 93-82. That’s the ball game.

So from 4:46 to 2:56 (less than 2 minutes), Charlotte went on a 9-0 run mainly because of bad Houston defense and of course, missed shots from Battier and Budinger. Same old story — no one can step up to hit shots in the crunch.

Overall, comparing the teams’ stats, every category was just about even for the Rockets except for a few:

– 33 field goals compared to Charlotte’s 39,
– 42% from the field vs. 46% for the Bobcats
– 14-of-23 from the free throw line (61%) vs. 75% for Charlotte

So it really came down to a couple of players’ individual stats to see who dragged them down from a shooting perspective.

Battier was awful, hitting only 1-of-9 shots and 0-for-6 from three-point land for 2 points overall. And he’s only 28% from 3-point land this season. How come Adelman doesn’t pay attention to percentages like these in late-game situations? My rule-of-thumb for Battier continues to ring true: When he doesn’t score, the Rockets lose.

Kevin Martin was only 6-of-17 for 16 points. He usually makes it up at the free throw line, but only had two attempts and sank one. Granted, he only played 31 minutes. You’d expect more, though. Why Adelman played his backup, Budinger, 28 1/2 minutes is beyond me. I thought Martin was supposed to be the Rockets’ go-to guy? To give Budinger so many minutes when he’s been struggling is perplexing. Same for Luis Scola, who only played about 30 minutes and scored 11 points, although Scola had a terrible night at the line: only 3-of-8. That’s just as bad as his 8-for-15 against Golden State Wednesday night. I think one thing that’s clear is that Adelman must not like what he sees on defense from Martin and Scola. Well, he didn’t get much of an improvement down the stretch, as described above.

Adelman finally put in Jermaine Taylor after the game was out-of-hand, and he came in and drilled a very pure 3-pointer that hit nothing but net. Do I have to say it any more? PLAY J.T. MORE!

If the Rockets are going to lose, let us at least see what Taylor can do with more significant minutes, and let’s see if he can do what Von Wafer did for the Rockets a few years ago. We could at least use some excitement until Brooks & Yao return…and before next year’s draft.

Another problem with the Rockets is that they have no on-court leader. I can see how Battier is a good leader in the locker room, but they need someone with an edge on the court who gets pissed, and gets in teammates’ faces on the bench. I’ve always liked Stephen Jackson because of that edge he brings to a team, but apparently Houston wants a team of good guys and choir boys who don’t rock the boat.

I think in order to succeed at the NBA level, every team needs at least one guy who can be a catalyst to fire up others and has the mental fortitude to withstand the pressure of a road crowd screaming at them, and still hit big shots. Remember Vernon Maxwell, Charles Barkley, and Ron Artest, just to name a few?

Man, I’m envious of teams that have young guns who are killing it this year, like second-year guy Russell Westbrook who scored 43 points Friday night against Indiana. The only way the Rockets are going to get someone like that is through the draft since they haven’t been able to sign mentally tough guys as free agents. You saw what they did with Wafer when he acted up against Adelman. They cut him.

Looking ahead, Daryl Morey said last week in a radio interview that it’s almost impossible to trade anyone until mid-December since every team is still in the process of assessing what they have on their rosters and what they need. And any team that’s doing well right now that has great players probably doesn’t want to get rid of them. So they will probably be stuck with doing deals with bottom dwellers like the Clippers, Timberwolves, Philadelphia, New Jersey, their lifelong trade buddies in Sacramento, etc.

Random thoughts:

– As down as the Rockets are with Yao’s injuries the past couple of seasons, I guess it could be worse. Think Portland and Greg Oden.

– I must admit when the Rockets were beaming about acquiring Courtney Lee in the off-season and said they had been pursuing him for a couple of years, I didn’t really get it. To me, he was most known for that blown layup with Orlando in the Finals against the Lakers that could have given the Magic more of a chance in that series. Unfair or not, maybe I’m too simple in that I like my acquisitions to be proven commodities. I know veterans are more expensive, and that the Rockets have been handcuffed with big salaries. But after unloading the Tracy McGrady contract, I was hoping for more at the backup two spot. At least they went out and got Brad Miller at the backup 5 spot, and Miller has proven to be worth his value. I have been impressed with Lee’s athleticism, but I was hoping he was going to turnout to be like another backup shooting guard the Rockets quietly acquired about 15 years ago who no one else knew about to win a couple of championships: Mario Elie. Even their names sounded alike.

– One of the few people in the NBA who probably felt worse than the Rockets Friday night was ex-Rocket John Lucas III, who was signed earlier in the day as a free agent by Chicago because of Derrick Rose‘s neck injury. Lucas missed 2 free throws that could have given the Bulls a 3-point lead with seconds remaining in the game. Instead, the Bulls lost the game on the next possession when Carmelo Anthony hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win it. Poor Lucas. He got his chance to get back into the NBA after being relegated to playing for Yao’s Shanghai Sharks last season, had a great year in China, gets back to the NBA yesterday, and within a few minutes of playing time loses the game for his new team. If he had hit those free throws, chances were higher he could have stuck around in the NBA upon Rose’s return. Now it will be a tougher climb for him. I’m pulling for him, though.

– I can tell you the main Web site I’ll be watching over the next few months is this one: NBADraft.net. I can’t wait to see what kind of franchise player we can get. Perry Jones at Baylor looks good (small forward). I don’t think the Rockets need another point guard like the site lists on their projected Rockets pick — their biggest weakness is center and small forward since I don’t anticipate Battier will get a new contract, at least not one that pays him $7 million per year.

Houston heads into Thanksgiving on a high note

November 25th, 2010
by John

A little home cooking and some friendly fans helped the Rockets break their 4-game losing streak Wednesday night, beating Golden State 111-101.

Golden State has an awesome crowd which really gives their young team a lot of momentum when they get on a roll. But obviously they didn’t have that Wednesday night in Houston. They also didn’t have David Lee, who has missed the last 7 games, with Golden State losing 6 of them. Now the Warriors have an idea of what Houston has had to go through with Yao Ming being out.

Speaking of Yao, he was on the sidelines in street clothes again, but this time without his walking boot. So things are progressing with him. The earliest we can expect him back is early December, but it will probably be longer than that.

November 24th, 2010 - Yao Ming offers some strategic advice during a timeout against the Warriors
Yao Ming gives Chase Budinger some strategic advice during a timeout against the Warriors. Click here for more photos from the game.

The Warriors encountered early foul trouble when their bigs (Dan Gadzuric and Andris Biedrins) were forced to the bench, and that helped Houston get an early lead. But Golden State kept fighting back, going on runs to chop big leads down to stay within striking distance.

This time, though, Houston didn’t lose a lead in the 4th quarter like they have done so many times this season. They almost did when Golden State cut Houston’s lead to 88-86, but the Rockets responded with an 11-0 run to put the game away.

When you look at the stats, it’s amazing some of the disparities you’ll see. Houston made 11 less field goals (42-31), had 3x less steals (10-3), had about 1/3rd more turnovers (15-11), had 3x less fast break points (25-8), and had 2x less points in the paint (60-30). So how in the world could Houston win this game with stats like those?

It really came down to free throws, shooting 33 more free throws (51-18) and making 27 more of them (39-12). And they hit twice as many 3-pointers (10-5) on about the same number of attempts (20-19) for a 50% success rate. This is about the polar opposite of the same stat categories in the Phoenix loss where Houston had 20 less free throws (30-12) and hit only 23% of their treys.

Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, who had torched the Rockets in the second game of the season, didn’t kill them this time around, scoring 18 and 21 points, respectively, on a combined 15-of-40 from the field and 8-of-11 from the line. Their 39 points collectively was less than the 46 that Ellis had put up on his own against Houston in their first game.

Meanwhile, Houston’s Kevin Martin continues to be a foul-collecting and free throw shooting machine, hitting 14-of-15 free throws while only making 4-of-12 field goals to score a team-high 25 points. Scoring 25 points on 4 field goals? Incredible.

Speaking of lots of free throws, Chuck Hayes was a machine himself hitting 8-of-8 free throws and 4-of-5 field goals for 16 points. He also had 7 boards and 5 assists. Luis Scola was his consistent self, hitting 8-of-15 field goals for 24 points, although he had the same stat at the free throw line: 8-of-15. Not that great.

And I’ve always said when Shane Battier has a good game offensively, Houston’s chances go up significantly to win. Shane delivered with 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting from the field.

The man who really made the most difference, though, was Kyle Lowry, who is getting back to the Lowry we all know and love by scoring 14 points (4-of-8 shooting), grabbing 7 boards, and doling out 10 assists. His plus-minus when he was on the floor was +20, the highest on the team. He’s beginning to earn his $5 million a year contract he just signed in the off season.

Houston’s bench with Chase Budinger and Courtney Lee has been doing better lately, scoring 9 points each Wednesday night. But it was their 3-pointers that really got the crowd going, with Bud hitting 2-of-4 that hopefully bust his slump, and Lee hitting 2-of-2 from behind the arc. Brad Miller and Jordan Hill hardly played, but it was interesting to hear Rick Adelman say that he really likes playing those guys together since Miller really helps Hill on offense, and Hill helps Miller in rebounding.

For Jeremy Lin fans, Lin got some decent playing time and actually showed some good moves on his way to 8 points in 13 minutes.

Random thought:

– Since I have NBA League Pass, I’ve been watching more of the alternate broadcast (road team coverage) of the Rocket games. Instead of listening to Bill Worrell and Clyde Drexler, I thought I’d mix it up a bit Wednesday night. I have to say the Golden State announcers blows Houston’s away. Worrell and Drexler are just too “light” on in-depth aspects of the game, talking way too much about esoteric fluff that doesn’t have anything to do with the game you’re watching. And they made a huge mistake by saying Jeremy Lin was the first “Chinese-American” player in the NBA, that he played in Yao Ming’s charity game in Shanghai, and continuing to talk about “Chinese” basketball talent. Uh, guys, he’s a TAIWANESE-American, and he played in Yao’s TAIPEI game (there wasn’t even a game in Shanghai, only in Beijing and Taipei). Not that they would even know where Taipei is, so to make it more explicit, Taipei is n TAIWAN. It’s really embarrassing to have announcers like this make such errors showing their ignorance of the world outside the American borders.

Yao becomes a Thanksgiving waiter

November 23rd, 2010
by John

In case you missed it in the forum, after practice a couple of days ago where Yao Ming went through simple rehab and shooting exercises, he and his teammates held a party at Toyota Center for more than 100 children from military families to celebrate Thanksgiving.

Here are photos of Yao in action at the meal. Click here for more photos from the event that Raymond has posted in the forum.

November 21st, 2010 - Yao Ming serves Thanksgiving meals to children of military families at Toyota Center

November 21st, 2010 - Yao Ming serves Thanksgiving meals to children of military families at Toyota Center

Rockets fall to Nash & Suns as Yao and Brooks look on in streetclothes

November 23rd, 2010
by John

Coming into Toyota Center, the Phoenix Suns had lost their last two games by 18 and 16 points without Steve Nash. What happened in Houston with Nash? They spanked the Rockets 123-116. Struggling teams should play Houston for all that ails them.

It’s just Houston’s luck that Nash overcame his ‘doubtful’ status for the game to lead his team to a victory with 24 points and 9 assists. The Rockets needed a break and play against a team with their superstars out, like Houston with Yao Ming & Aaron Brooks.

November 22nd, 2010 - Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks attend the Rockets-Suns game
Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks returned to Toyota Center in street clothes. Their moral support from the bench still wasn’t enough to overcome the Suns, though.

The Suns’ starting center, Robin Lopez, was out with a sprained left knee, so Houston was equal on the “center-being-out” front. If Nash had stayed out, they probably would have won. That’s what we’ve come to: hoping opposing teams’ superstars don’t play.

Things are looking really bad for Houston when you compare them to other bad teams around the league. Last night the 1-13 Clippers beat the 11-1 New Orleans’ Hornets in a very close game. Even the CLIPPERS can find a way to beat really good teams, and they did it after making multiple mistakes in the game’s final two minutes (two blown layups, a turnover resulting in a fast break basket for New Orleans). But they still overcame. Houston can’t.

And did you see Sunday night how Rudy Gay hit a huge bucket as time expired over LeBron James to give the Grizzlies’ a win over Miami? Wow, that kind of player who can create his own shot would really be useful right now (sorry Shane). Looking at Gays’ stats this season, it makes Rocket fans wonder what could have been, although his $13.6 million salary compared to Battier’s $7 million is something I don’t think Houston, nor any team, would have paid.

The Rockets game up 123 points on 54% shooting is atrocious and you’re not going to win many games with those kinds of stats. And Houston fouled Phoenix twice as many times (26 to 14) and was outshot on the free throw line 32-12! Houston also went 0-for-12 on 3-pointers in the first half, which killed them. Hitting 6-of-14 treys in the second half to finish 23% from 3-point land still wasn’t good enough, especially given that Phoenix hit 7-of-13 for 54%.

But there were some bright spots if you look at the stats. When you’re losing, I guess looking at the stats is the only other solace you can get. You know that saying: “Stats is for losers.”

– The Rockets killed the Suns on the boards, 51-33. That gave them 7 more field goals (49) than Phoenix, and Houston had 31 assists leading to those 49 field goals. They also dominated Phoenix in the paint (62 points to 42).

– The bench responded after being told by Coach Rick Adelman they need to step up, outscoring the Suns 50-28. Jordan Hill had a season-high 14 points on 7-of-8 shooting and 10 rebounds, and Courtney Lee scored 16 points on 7-of-14 shots. Chase Budinger finally hit some shots after going 0-for-6 in Toronto, hitting 3-of-8 shots, although he missed all 4 of his 3-pointers.

I do have to give credit to Adelman for saying he’s going to play the young guys more, after the game stating the following:

“I said before the game I decided I was going to try to play the bench more tonight and give them more opportunities. We’ve got to build something throughout the year. Our young guys have to start getting better and the only way they’re going to do that is if we play them.”

That’s something Jeff Van Gundy didn’t do much of, and I think it eventually cost him his job not cultivating his younger players. So at least there some progress on giving the young guns a chance. The only problem is that Adelman didn’t play Jermaine Taylor at all Monday night. That needs to happen, even if it comes at the expense of less minutes for Budinger.