Okay, I’ve had more time to put together my thoughts beyond what I wrote at the bottom of the post earlier today (see below) about what the Rockets should do with Yao’s loss from the lineup for the season and the playoffs.

I cleared a shoulder rehab appointment off my calendar today so I could take in all the talk and chat occurring on the Web about today’s bad news. I have never seen more comments on this site and the Houston Chronicle site in my life! I expect the number of page views this site gets will be more than what I received on the highest traffic day I’ve had in years: that day in August when Yao got married.

When the news was announced around noon Central time on Tuesday, I couldn’t help but think of all the Chinese who are 14 hours ahead of Houston’s timezone who were still in bed when the news broke. As I write this, many Chinese will be waking up to hear or read the news. If you think Houston is blowing up right now, you can expect the same thing to happen on the other side of the world.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I wish the timetable could have been expedited so the Rockets’ doctors could have come to this prognosis after Yao brought to their attention some of the pain he was experiencing during All-Star weekend. If they had, they might have had enough time to do a deal before the Thursday, 2/21 deadline to get a capable big man to fill in for Yao. Now it’s too late to do a deal, so their only option in finding a new player are those who are unsigned and haven’t played much recently. That’s water under the bridge now.

So looking ahead, what can be expected for the Rockets? As I wrote earlier, the remaining Rocket bigs are going to have to pick up the slack. That’s a no-brainer. I think Dikembe Mutombo can do what he did last season while Yao was injured and grab 10+ rebounds a game. So Deke will help on the boards. The question is about the offense and making up for Yao’s 22 points. I think that can be done if the following happens:

Of course, Luis Scola and Carl Landry will play more minutes, and I think they could optimistically pick up about half of the points (11 of the 22 that Yao averages) missing from him being out. I think one of the interesting things we’ll soon start to see is if Scola is still effective without Yao being able to draw attention away from him. That’s a big key to making up for the loss of Yao. If Scola is still able to be an offensive force without Yao in the lineup and more defensive attention is directed toward Scola, then the Rockets are in good shape. If that happens, then opposing defenses will start double-teaming Scola more often. Then the question is, “Can the Rockets keep the ball moving around like they have done so well with Yao in the lineup?” I think they can. I don’t think that mentality disappears with just one guy being out.

So I talked about how I think Scola and Landry can make up for half of Yao’s missing points. So where would the other 11 points come from? Well, hopefully McGrady won’t jack up alot of outside jumpers to make up for it, or they will be doomed since he doesn’t shoot well from the outside given his history. Instead, he will have to attack the rack for layups and drive-and-dish to shooters. I’m also concerned if he takes on too much of the scoring burden and not spread it out among other players, then he’ll wear himself out for the playoffs or even get hurt himself (remember that back of his?).

And when McGrady or any other player takes it strong to the hole, they will have to make their free throws. The removal of Yao’s 85% shooting from the line will be huge if the Rockets don’t improve their free throw shooting overall, including McGrady’s 69% and Scola and Landry’s mediocre FT shooting.

Chuck Hayes will obviously get more playing time, but he won’t be relied upon for scoring. He’ll have to step in and play defense against much bigger players when Dikembe is out of the game (there’s no way they can play both Deke and Chuck together because they provide no offense). There is an argument that Houston’s defense may actually improve since Hayes is a better defender than Yao. On offense, they may cut down on turnovers a bit since Yao could sometimes turn it over 6 or 7 times every once in awhile. That’s the only bright side here, but no way makes up for the loss of Yao.

The one thing that Hayes may be able to do that will surprise people is play out of the high post and throw Vlade Divac-like passes to cutters going through the lane. I’ve watched Hayes closely and he can actually pass the ball pretty well from there. So who knows, Rick Adelman may be able to get the offense to play the style that he deployed at Sacramento. You may remember former Rocket coach Tom Thibodeau saying in this translated interview that he thought Adelman has had to adjust to Yao’s game more than Yao adjusting to Adelman’s offense. So who knows, maybe the offense will become even more high-powered like Adelman had in Sacramento. It’s too bad Bonzi Wells still isn’t around to provide that low-post presence, but I still believe there are tremendous benefits of having Bobby Jackson around as we saw the other night. So no need to second-guess that deal. It’s done.

Along with McGrady, what I don’t want to see is Rafer Alston trying to make up for the loss of Yao’s points unless Alston attacks the basket and drives-and-dishes to open shooters. Alston is playing as good as he can right now, so I don’t want to see him hoisting more jumpers or three-pointers. If he does, it won’t work in the long run.

Instead, I think the guys who are going to have to step up beyond the Rockets’ big men are Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Bobby Jackson. All things being equal, they are going to need to take smart shots and shoot for a high percentage. They’ll also have to crash the boards for rebounds. I think Steve Novak will get more minutes, and I think he’s capable of delivering with big shots. I even think Aaron Brooks will get more minutes, especially if the Rockets try to go more up-tempo and get easy shots on the break. And his ability to hit the three-pointer will really help.

What will be interesting to watch is how McGrady sees himself. You may remember last season that McGrady proclaimed himself the leader of the team, but after a disappointing post-season, during training camp he said Yao was the leader. After a recent interview, I think he remembered that he said that because Houston announcer TV Bill Worrell told McGrady at the end of an interview that “you’re the leader,” and McGrady didn’t respond probably because he knew he would be flip-flopping too much on that issue. So now that Yao is out, will McGrady call himself the leader again, or the “leader while Yao is out,” or whatever? I know it’s a small point, but an interesting one to better understand the complicated mind of Tracy McGrady.

I do hope for one thing: even with Yao out, I hope he is on the bench in street clothes for the remainder of the season to give his teammates lots of moral support (unlike what we saw with McGrady during most of the time he was injured). Yao is a leader and I think every player respects him, so if he’s there to cheer them on like Dikembe has been doing this entire season, I think it will provide a great boost to a team that needs as much support it can get from its leader.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 7:58 pm and is filed under Injury and rehab. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.