More thoughts about Rockets now that Yao is out
February 26th, 2008by John
Okay, I’ve had more time to put together my thoughts beyond what I wrote at the bottom of the post earlier today (see below) about what the Rockets should do with Yao’s loss from the lineup for the season and the playoffs.
I cleared a shoulder rehab appointment off my calendar today so I could take in all the talk and chat occurring on the Web about today’s bad news. I have never seen more comments on this site and the Houston Chronicle site in my life! I expect the number of page views this site gets will be more than what I received on the highest traffic day I’ve had in years: that day in August when Yao got married.
When the news was announced around noon Central time on Tuesday, I couldn’t help but think of all the Chinese who are 14 hours ahead of Houston’s timezone who were still in bed when the news broke. As I write this, many Chinese will be waking up to hear or read the news. If you think Houston is blowing up right now, you can expect the same thing to happen on the other side of the world.
As I mentioned in my previous post, I wish the timetable could have been expedited so the Rockets’ doctors could have come to this prognosis after Yao brought to their attention some of the pain he was experiencing during All-Star weekend. If they had, they might have had enough time to do a deal before the Thursday, 2/21 deadline to get a capable big man to fill in for Yao. Now it’s too late to do a deal, so their only option in finding a new player are those who are unsigned and haven’t played much recently. That’s water under the bridge now.
So looking ahead, what can be expected for the Rockets? As I wrote earlier, the remaining Rocket bigs are going to have to pick up the slack. That’s a no-brainer. I think Dikembe Mutombo can do what he did last season while Yao was injured and grab 10+ rebounds a game. So Deke will help on the boards. The question is about the offense and making up for Yao’s 22 points. I think that can be done if the following happens:
Of course, Luis Scola and Carl Landry will play more minutes, and I think they could optimistically pick up about half of the points (11 of the 22 that Yao averages) missing from him being out. I think one of the interesting things we’ll soon start to see is if Scola is still effective without Yao being able to draw attention away from him. That’s a big key to making up for the loss of Yao. If Scola is still able to be an offensive force without Yao in the lineup and more defensive attention is directed toward Scola, then the Rockets are in good shape. If that happens, then opposing defenses will start double-teaming Scola more often. Then the question is, “Can the Rockets keep the ball moving around like they have done so well with Yao in the lineup?” I think they can. I don’t think that mentality disappears with just one guy being out.
So I talked about how I think Scola and Landry can make up for half of Yao’s missing points. So where would the other 11 points come from? Well, hopefully McGrady won’t jack up alot of outside jumpers to make up for it, or they will be doomed since he doesn’t shoot well from the outside given his history. Instead, he will have to attack the rack for layups and drive-and-dish to shooters. I’m also concerned if he takes on too much of the scoring burden and not spread it out among other players, then he’ll wear himself out for the playoffs or even get hurt himself (remember that back of his?).
And when McGrady or any other player takes it strong to the hole, they will have to make their free throws. The removal of Yao’s 85% shooting from the line will be huge if the Rockets don’t improve their free throw shooting overall, including McGrady’s 69% and Scola and Landry’s mediocre FT shooting.
Chuck Hayes will obviously get more playing time, but he won’t be relied upon for scoring. He’ll have to step in and play defense against much bigger players when Dikembe is out of the game (there’s no way they can play both Deke and Chuck together because they provide no offense). There is an argument that Houston’s defense may actually improve since Hayes is a better defender than Yao. On offense, they may cut down on turnovers a bit since Yao could sometimes turn it over 6 or 7 times every once in awhile. That’s the only bright side here, but no way makes up for the loss of Yao.
The one thing that Hayes may be able to do that will surprise people is play out of the high post and throw Vlade Divac-like passes to cutters going through the lane. I’ve watched Hayes closely and he can actually pass the ball pretty well from there. So who knows, Rick Adelman may be able to get the offense to play the style that he deployed at Sacramento. You may remember former Rocket coach Tom Thibodeau saying in this translated interview that he thought Adelman has had to adjust to Yao’s game more than Yao adjusting to Adelman’s offense. So who knows, maybe the offense will become even more high-powered like Adelman had in Sacramento. It’s too bad Bonzi Wells still isn’t around to provide that low-post presence, but I still believe there are tremendous benefits of having Bobby Jackson around as we saw the other night. So no need to second-guess that deal. It’s done.
Along with McGrady, what I don’t want to see is Rafer Alston trying to make up for the loss of Yao’s points unless Alston attacks the basket and drives-and-dishes to open shooters. Alston is playing as good as he can right now, so I don’t want to see him hoisting more jumpers or three-pointers. If he does, it won’t work in the long run.
Instead, I think the guys who are going to have to step up beyond the Rockets’ big men are Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Bobby Jackson. All things being equal, they are going to need to take smart shots and shoot for a high percentage. They’ll also have to crash the boards for rebounds. I think Steve Novak will get more minutes, and I think he’s capable of delivering with big shots. I even think Aaron Brooks will get more minutes, especially if the Rockets try to go more up-tempo and get easy shots on the break. And his ability to hit the three-pointer will really help.
What will be interesting to watch is how McGrady sees himself. You may remember last season that McGrady proclaimed himself the leader of the team, but after a disappointing post-season, during training camp he said Yao was the leader. After a recent interview, I think he remembered that he said that because Houston announcer TV Bill Worrell told McGrady at the end of an interview that “you’re the leader,” and McGrady didn’t respond probably because he knew he would be flip-flopping too much on that issue. So now that Yao is out, will McGrady call himself the leader again, or the “leader while Yao is out,” or whatever? I know it’s a small point, but an interesting one to better understand the complicated mind of Tracy McGrady.
I do hope for one thing: even with Yao out, I hope he is on the bench in street clothes for the remainder of the season to give his teammates lots of moral support (unlike what we saw with McGrady during most of the time he was injured). Yao is a leader and I think every player respects him, so if he’s there to cheer them on like Dikembe has been doing this entire season, I think it will provide a great boost to a team that needs as much support it can get from its leader.
February 26th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 26th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
my 2 cents - rox fall out of the playoffs. sadly, this was bound to happen to yao. he was taxing himself over the limit with his year-round commitments. the biggest culprit, i regretfully say, is yao himself. after being forced to pound 82 games in the paint by JVG, he let himself attend all the bull-sshiit events during the summer, every summer. i think he could have said no and the chinese gov’t couldnt have done much.
i don’t think yao will ever be the same, after all too frequent injuries to his legs. perhaps he can consider retiring now to preserve his stats, since his future stats will be much worse. i hope i am wrong but probably not. thanks John.
February 26th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
yao mings contributions and impact cannot be replaced. Rockets will definitely not make it past the first round. I think its time for the rockets to think about long term plans. They should start thinking about next season, and chase after some for some free agents during the summer. Or trading tmac might be a viable option. It’s time for the rockets to advance from the first round, and we all know that wont happen unless changes are made
February 26th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
is too sad….no more nba and reading this website for me till yao is back….
February 26th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I feel bad for Yao and the Rockets. I can’t imagine the immense pressure that Yao is feeling right now if he doesn’t recover in time for the Olympic to a nation of more than 1 billion people. There is always another season for the Rockets, but there is definitely only one Beijing Olympic in Yao’s lifetime.
Honestly, I only follow the Rockets because of Yao Ming, but John, thank you for your continued analysis of the Rockets.
D
Thanks, keep coming back because it will be a wild ride the rest of the season. And who knows, maybe that second opinion could help bring him back during the playoffs (NBA Finals are in June.)
— John
February 26th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I felt so depressed after my coworker first told me the bad news. It was like being punched in the stomach. I come to this site religiously every day reading news about yao (sorry I never posted). The only reason I root for rockets (my being in Philly) is yao ming.
Sigh!, I just had yao’s poster up in my office wall last week. The poster was a nice surprise mailed to me from my friends at Houston. “felt like crying” indeed.
February 26th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
i saw on it chinese tv that HK mixed 30 new born babies 30 years ago and they’re doing DNA test on those babies to correct their mistake. anyway, the reason i wrote this is wishing yao injury is also a mistake…..which i don’t think so….but the news is just WAY WAY too depressing…..
i started watching basketball because of yao……..and started to like the rox team because of yao……now even if the rox wins it all….i’l still be happy for the rox but is different w/o yao being a part of it…….big different..
yao done so much for chinese people and i’m chinese myself….before when i go on vacation to countries / places where there aren’t too many asian people, they would think bruce lee or jackie chan, now is yao ming….when i went to cancun mexico two months ago, some spanish people call me yao ming…haa
February 26th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
I hope Rockets start losing without Yao. And I won’t be surprised if they do start losing without Yao. Beating the Wizards tonight by 20+ points doesn’t really impress anyone, it’s the Wizards!
Yao is the most important player for the Rockets. If Rockets lose without Yao, then it’s a good thing because that will prove to everyone that Yao is the best player, the most important player, on the Rockets.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
I am terriblly sorry to hear this. It is so unfair that he has so many injuries. But I am sure he will overcome this and becomes stronger and better.
My first thought when i heard of this was - too many minutes he has played this season - injury and fatigue go hand in hand. How can a big center play 40 minutes a game regularly, especially sometimes for the entire quarter? This kind of practice reminds me a Chinese saying - “to catch the fish by draining the lake”.
My 2nd thought: when his right foot was injuried during the game with Bucks (by Yi?), even his left foot was not injuried at that time, his left foot (good foot) has to take more weight to compensate his insjured right foot obviously and subconciously. He should have rested a few games instead of playing through insuries. Hope the Rockets, coaches, Team Yao and him self will learn from this.
My third thought: Injury likes plague that can infect people around. T-Mac’s frequent injuries obviously has to make Yao overloaded and over-worked, not even mention the bad luck or feng shui.
My 4th thought: Yao should have stayed with Nike instead of changing to another endorsement company. This is my personal view. Nike kid should stay with Nike.
My 5th thought: CBA’s role in every summer, Yao has never had a break. And the only thing that grants him a break is injuiry ironically.
My 6th thought: NBA’s referees do not stop any physical abuses against Yao, even Yao has so many injuires from head, face, nose, arm, leg, foot, everywhere. They see nothing wrong and see nothing, which is the encouragement for the abusers and attackers.
My 7th thought: Team Yao, Rockets and CBA should work together to explore some possible medical prevention from frequent fracture.
I have so many flying thoughts. I’d better to stop here.
I am sure Yao Ming will be able to overcome this major injury and become stronger and better. At least, he gets a break now, finally.
February 27th, 2008 at 3:37 am
When Adelman made Yao play big minutes this season, I had a terrible feeling that it may wear him down. The fact that this injury was an accumulation of stress over the season seems to validate this point. After all, Yao was constantly fighting off double teams and triple teams which adds much more pressue on his joints. I have to blame Yao’s injury partly on Adelman for not taking care of his biggest asset.
February 27th, 2008 at 4:03 am
Come on everybody!
Is it heartbreaking? Yes.
Is it devastating? NO!!!
February 27th, 2008 at 4:31 am
I was shocked and heartbroken too. It took me a while to adjust. Well, other than a big injury on Yao, which has already happened, we did not actually lose too much.
I thought about what I wish Yao can get in his career. 1, NBA Title. 2, Safely finish his career without any career ending injury.
About the injury, it is big. But it is diagnosed early. It can have bad influence in Yao’s future. But it is not the worst. What’s more? The injury will warn people and Yao himself that he is not a superman. He should not play 84 times 40 minutes every year and wasting his time on too much social activities in the offseason. This in turn will benefit Yao for his future career.
About the NBA Title, I do not think Rox can get the title without Yao this season. We have to be realistic. Although TMAC+underdogs are getting better and better, they are not good enough for a title. So we can hope for the next season. After all, Yao is only 27 and TMAC is only 28. Think about MJ. He got his first title at 28. If you insist on a center, Olajuwon got his titles at 31 and 32. So Yao still has a lot of chances. We can all see that this Rox is in good shape now and will only be better.
Yes, Yao lost 4 months in his career. Yes, Rox lost 4 months and a postseason experience to practice and improve the current system. They can be good for the rest season. But when Yao come back next season, they still have to adjust back and hope the system is good in postseason 2009.
It is heartbreaking. But it is not devastating. People will always cherish their time more after they lose a lot. I believe Yao and Rox will only be better in the future. Let’s wait.
February 28th, 2008 at 3:06 am
chocolate, great comment, I agree totally with you. As for this season, it´s not over yet… I´m even more excited after reading all those comments on ESPN and SI, writing the Rockets off!
N.E.V.E.R. underestimate the heart of a champion …
February 29th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
you know what amuses me about this site? well rather the people who post here? how many of them are like “i hope the rockets lose every game now because yao’s out!!!!!”
i mean i’m a lakers fan; lived pretty much all my life in southern california. my next favorite team would be the rockets. t-mac’s my favorite player. and yao’s definitely up there.
and you don’t see me wishing the rockets just bomb out.
and i’m afraid to say, but i think the rockets are going to be screwed as long as they have yao ming. playing year round means he’s going to always be injury prone. he needs a break badly. a lot of players suffer injuries after olympic/world championship years. yao pretty much has that EVERY year, plus he’s not the most sturdy person. the cba needs to cut him a break if they want him to win an nba championship.
March 1st, 2008 at 2:02 am
Anybody who wants the Rockets to lose to make Yao look better is a complete loser, and if Yao heard that he’d tell that person he doesn’t consider them any fan of his.
March 1st, 2008 at 8:07 pm
The ideal situation will be that Rockets get into the post season and advance to the Conference Final, at that time Yao Ming will be healed and start the game until the NBA final - history does repeat itself.
Alternatively, the Rockets may exist at the first or the 2nd round, even they would have won 16 ~ 17 games, just as their Texes cousins did (San Antonia and Dulas, even they have won 16 ~ 17 games).
Zoe