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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:46 pm
Posts: 10073Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 7:10 pm
pryuen wrote:
temuchin wrote:


The idea being that, in poor countries with high mortality rural population NEED to have a lot of kids to make sure 1 survives to provide for them and that in those societies women do not have control of their own reproductive rights. Backwards countries like India and China need those controls, but developed nations like Japan and Korea for example have the opposite problems of aging populations and declining birthrates/populations. China still has a massive rural population and uneducated urban working force but it will undergo the same transition in the coming decades and the cap wont be needed.



temuchin

Both India (6.23) and China (7.06) have LOW mortality rate compared to your so called developed countries: USA (8.38 ), Canada (7.74), Japan (9.54), UK (10.02), Italy (10.72), Portugal (10.68 ), France (8.56), Switzerland (8.59), Spain (9.99), Denmark (10.22), Sweden (10.21), Belgium (10.44), Netherlands (8.74), Germany (10.90), Russia (16.06)........... :roll:

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=ch&v=26


did you even peruse the page after you googled it?

Quote:
This indicator is significantly affected by age distribution, and most countries will eventually show a rise in the overall death rate, in spite of continued decline in mortality at all ages, as declining fertility results in an aging population


it says clearly it's across the entire population. it has nothing to do with infant mortality. what the ****** did I say about developing countries and aging populations?

moreover, I clearly posted that this wasn't my opinion, but that it was the classic held liberal view on population growth and why poorer rural populations have more kids. finally if you understood the model, it trends by generation, you would have to look at infant mortality for at least the past generation, going back to the 80s. as any social phenomena, it's a wave (much like cars slowing down passing a car crash).

you'd see changes in the behavior of the population that lags years behind the actual changes to infant mortality, education of women etc. poor peasants wouldn't realize that their kids would survive at the higher rates until a full generation or more had grown up. even if the mortality was even with the Western world there's no way farmers would know this, believe it or adjust their behavior at least until their kids grew up healthy, daughters proved as able to provide for them etc

Quote:
turd chin, in his eagerness to compensate for his less-than-humble beginning, just made up false claims pieced together by his usual verbosity. But he over-did it, in the proocess, just handed his azz on a platter to Yaorule, who obliged by giving it a quick swift kick. Very Happy


just the fact that you hadn't learned this in college and think that something sociologists have been saying for 40 years is something new I made up shows how uneducated you are. you probably didn't understand a thing I posted and couldn't understand the statistics that Pryuen posted either. dumbass

Quote:
So those fans anticipating that Yao's sibling(s) will grow up to become basketball superstars are basically setting themselves up to be let down big time. I am not saying it can't happen but the trend seem to suggest it's not likely to.


there's a lot of examples where kids of athletes turn out to be superb athletes themselves. grant hill/calvin hill. barry/bobby bonds. people always point at jordan but his kids are short. jordan himself was abnormally tall for his genes compared to his brothers and father and likely was an outlier even for his genes. other contempories of jordan who were the top in their sports: gretsky and joe montana have sons who are more like their fathers even facially and in height both have pretty good chances to make it to the NFL.

a lot of guys like Jordan and Magic married partially black women and didn't devote a lot of resources to raising their kids as ballplayers since they were busy with their own lives. in sports many of the best players ever in their sport were in fact groomed by a parent who passed on genes as well as training like Ichiro, Karch Kiraly, Agassi. Woods, Serena Williams etc. If Yao or another chinese grooms his kid to play, there's a good chance that he or she will at least play college/AAU/ ball with a chance at pros and an opportunity to be a great player.

regardless of anything else, Yao's kids will have almost a statistically infinite greater chance than your average chinese dude to play in the NBA. probably like more than 1 billion times as likely considering there's like 2 legit players in the NBA atm. Keep in mind that Yao married another tall ballplayer and not a 5 foot 2 look-as-white-and-have-as-many-dominant-white-traits-as-possible half black chick with no athletic talent


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:57 pm
User avatarPosts: 59329Location: Hong Kong/ChinaJoined: Tue Feb 25, 2003 5:13 am
Well....it's a Yao Xiaoli 姚小莉..... i.e. a GIRL !!! :shock:

http://sports.sohu.com/20100107/n269432898.shtml


According to the above article from Sohu, John Lucas III said when he learnt about the news, he called to congratulate Big Yao on the phone, and Big Yao told him that very likely, it's a girl !!!


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:30 am
User avatarPosts: 7735Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 10:06 pm
temuchin wrote:

there's a lot of examples where kids of athletes turn out to be superb athletes themselves. grant hill/calvin hill. barry/bobby bonds.


I know about Grant and Calvin Hill but they are the exception rather than the rule.

temuchin wrote:
people always point at jordan but his kids are short. jordan himself was abnormally tall for his genes compared to his brothers and father and likely was an outlier even for his genes. other contempories of jordan who were the top in their sports:


Jeffrey is 6'1" while Marcus is 6'3". While they aren't as tall as MJ, there's plenty of players that have made it big in the NBA at those heights. Therefore your explanation doesn't really hold much water here. Born into a fortunate and privilege life, it's more likely they lack the drive, work ethic and competitiveness of their dad to reach greatness.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:32 am
User avatarPosts: 7735Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 10:06 pm
pryuen wrote:
Well....it's a Yao Xiaoli 姚小莉..... i.e. a GIRL !!! :shock:

http://sports.sohu.com/20100107/n269432898.shtml


According to the above article from Sohu, John Lucas III said when he learnt about the news, he called to congratulate Big Yao on the phone, and Big Yao told him that very likely, it's a girl !!!


Yao will probably end up having a family of girls. :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:12 am
User avatarPosts: 59329Location: Hong Kong/ChinaJoined: Tue Feb 25, 2003 5:13 am
Tang Man wrote:
pryuen wrote:
Well....it's a Yao Xiaoli 姚小莉..... i.e. a GIRL !!! :shock:

http://sports.sohu.com/20100107/n269432898.shtml


According to the above article from Sohu, John Lucas III said when he learnt about the news, he called to congratulate Big Yao on the phone, and Big Yao told him that very likely, it's a girl !!!


Yao will probably end up having a family of girls. :lol:


Well both Big Yao and Ye Li had expressed earlier to friends that they wish to have a son, cos they are afraid if it is a girl, she will be too damn tall, and would have problem of finding a suitable guy in future. :P


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:22 am
User avatarPosts: 59329Location: Hong Kong/ChinaJoined: Tue Feb 25, 2003 5:13 am


Regardless whether it will be a boy or a girl, I think the likelihood for them to be VERY TALL would be HIGH.

Take the example of Wang Zhizhi. He is 7 feet tall. And his wife Song Yang is barely 5ft 3. Yet their son Jerry Wang Xilin was over 1 meter (3ft 3) at the age of 3 2 years ago.

Image


Just imagine a 7ft 6 Big Yao + a 6 ft 3 Ye Li....


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:25 am
Posts: 1096Location: calgary, canadaJoined: Mon Oct 06, 2003 4:29 pm
congrats on the baby girl yao!


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 1:43 pm
User avatarPosts: 12417Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:27 pm
Tang Man wrote:
Born into a fortunate and privilege life, it's more likely they (offsprings of famous athletes) lack the drive... of their dad to reach greatness.
that's why my bet is that
    Yao Ming and Yi Li's children will, most probably, not be athletes.

    it just takes too much time and dedication.
instead, most probably, they will be educated professionals trained to look after their parents vast holdings


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:12 pm
User avatarPosts: 59329Location: Hong Kong/ChinaJoined: Tue Feb 25, 2003 5:13 am
Dr. No wrote:
Tang Man wrote:
Born into a fortunate and privilege life, it's more likely they (offsprings of famous athletes) lack the drive... of their dad to reach greatness.
that's why my bet is that
    Yao Ming and Yi Li's children will, most probably, not be athletes.

    it just takes too much time and dedication.
instead, most probably, they will be educated professionals trained to look after their parents vast holdings


[size=117]Well, quoting the words of Liu Wei, which in my opinion, were sort of representative of the sentiment/feelings of all Chinese people:

[color=red][b]"The children of Yao Ming and Ye Li not playing basketball? (I don't think) that would be agreeable/acceptable by all the people of China"


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:21 pm
User avatarPosts: 59329Location: Hong Kong/ChinaJoined: Tue Feb 25, 2003 5:13 am
Tang Man wrote:
Born into a fortunate and privilege life, it's more likely they (offsprings of famous athletes) lack the drive... of their dad to reach greatness.


And sometimes, it might not be due to lack of drive/motivation for success that offsprings of famous athletes or celebrities could not be as successful as their parents.

IMHO, alot of time, it could be
more a curse than a blessing for being the son or daughter of an extremely successful man or woman. The burden of the pressure, the loss of identity and unduely expectations could easily crush the young lad/lass, cos they grow up living under the shadow of the greatness of their father or mother.

Surely when Yao Xiaoming or Yao Xiaoli grow up, they don't want to be considered I'm the son or daughter of Yao Ming....They want to be themselves: I'm Yao Xiaoming or Yao Xiaoli, and Yao Ming is just my father.


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