Almost everything went the Rockets’ way when it came to scoreboard watching the two big games Tuesday night that were relevant to their hopes of winning home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Blazers’ defeat of the Lakers puts the Rockets just 1/2 game behind LA, and New Orleans’ loss to Utah puts Houston 2 games behind the Hornets for first place in the West. New Orleans and Houston have 5 games left to play in their season, and the Lakers have four.

Right on Houston’s tail is Phoenix, who won Tuesday night and are only 1/2 game behind Houston. Phoenix has four games remaining.

Although Houston wants Phoenix to lose to hold them off, I think we want to see them win Wednesday night, as crazy as it sounds. That’s because they’re playing San Antonio (on ESPN, I might add). If the Suns win that game, and the Rockets take care of business against Seattle, THEN THE ROCKETS WILL BE TIED WITH THE SPURS AND THE LAKERS with 4 games remaining in all 3 teams’ seasons. And all 3 of these teams will only be 1 1/2 games behind New Orleans for the Western Conference lead. Wow! I won’t even get into the tie-breaker situation because it’s so complicated.

That 1 1/2 game lead the Hornets have could be in trouble since their schedule is so tough. After they play Minnesota on Wednesday night (should be a W), then they play 3 of their next 4 games on the road at the Lakers, then Sacramento, and close out the season in Dallas. So I think they could lose 2 or 3 of their next 5 games, giving them a 56-26 or 57-25 record.

After playing Phoenix on Wednesday night, the Spurs’ toughest games are against the Lakers in LA, the Kings in Sacramento, and Utah at home. If they lose to Phoenix, then I think they will win 3 of their final 4 games, with the one loss coming against the Lakers. I think they will beat Utah after the Jazz killed them last Friday night. They will want revenge. The key game will in Sacramento. Hopefully the Kings can upset the Spurs like they did against the Rockets last week. But let’s say the Spurs lose Phoenix, then close out the season by winning 3 of their last 4. That would give the Spurs a 56-26 or 57-25 record, same as what I project for the Hornets.

The Lakers final 4 games include New Orleans on Friday night, San Antonio, and Sacramento, all at home. I think the Lakers could win all 3 of those games. If they do, they’ll finish the season 57-25. That’s the 3rd team so far I’ve discussed that could finish with that record.

The Suns finish the season by playing the Spurs (remember we want them to win that game), then play a HUGE game Friday night against Houston. That game will play a huge part in what happens with the Suns. If they win it, then they will probably close out the season winning their last 4 games (they finish against Golden State and Portland at home). That would give the Suns, at best, a 56-26 record, not enough to win the West, but still part of a tie for the 2nd seed.

Finally, the million dollar question is, “What about the Rockets?” If they beat Seattle on Wednesday, then they have that big game against Phoenix in Houston. If they win those 2 games, then they would be 54-25 with 3 games remaining. That’s a big IF since Phoenix is a tough matchup for Houston. Then they close out the season at Denver, at Utah, and at home against the Clippers. Those Denver and Utah games will be tough since they have so much to play for. If they win those games, it will put them in position to be in the tie-breaker scenario for the Western Conference lead at 57-25. But chances are they will lose at one or both of those games, giving them a 56-25 or 55-27 record. That would probably put them back in a first-round matchup against the Jazz.

If the Rockets do play the Jazz, I think there is one good thing about that series: Houston will be very motivated to beat the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. And motivation to overcome an arch rival after such a painful playoff exit last season is a significant factor.

I think the key team to watch during the stretch run is a team that won’t make the playoffs, which is Sacramento. They play 3 of the 4 teams the Rockets are contending against: the Spurs, Hornets, and Lakers. Hopefully the Kings can spoil those teams’ aspirations like they did against Houston last week.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 at 1:32 am and is filed under Rockets' off-season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.